3D Printers - can you predict what will happen?

Here is a great practice for learning the thinking process for forecasting the future.
The news is currently full of stories about 3D Printers, specifically about MakerBot. They just opened a shop in New York, and want to be huge.  The story is predicting that, just like PC's changed the world, 3D Printers will do the same.

Do you agree?

I don't, for the following reasons.

Firstly, technology becomes popular because of how it makes something easier. That it all it does. The mainstream public don't buy technology just because its new.

Lets look at the forecast in more detail.  When something breaks, your average member of the public would naturally throw it out, but they might be interested in printing out a replacement if its possible. However, lets imagine the printer isn't 3D but is just a normal one like you already own. 

Ever used your normal printer to create a TShirt Iron On transfer, to create a unique T Shirt design?
Ever used your printer to create your own magazine from a digital version?
Does your current printer have all the right ink in it? How expensive was it?
Do you use your printer to create unique posters?
When did your mother last use a printer?

These questions all have a angle that good forecasting needs to address. Will the new product address the problems that new technology also brings along with it?

Once the novelty has worn away, will we still use it?

My forecast for 3D printers is that it will make a huge difference, but that it will create a new industry rather than find its way into the home.  3D printers will take the place of copy shops in malls as a half way house between an online business and a consultancy.  People will bring in broken kit, and expect it fixed.  They won't want to create the plans themselves. 

Where I see the forecasts in the articles have gone wrong is that it over estimates the benefits it will bring the mainstream. The mainstream public are only interested in things that make THEIR life easier.  If its easier to sell junk, or easier to talk to people, or easier to feel good about themselves - then its going to work!

How does a 3D printer do any of those things?

Let me know what you think