3D Printers - can you predict what will happen?

Here is a great practice for learning the thinking process for forecasting the future.
The news is currently full of stories about 3D Printers, specifically about MakerBot. They just opened a shop in New York, and want to be huge.  The story is predicting that, just like PC's changed the world, 3D Printers will do the same.

Do you agree?

I don't, for the following reasons.

Firstly, technology becomes popular because of how it makes something easier. That it all it does. The mainstream public don't buy technology just because its new.

Lets look at the forecast in more detail.  When something breaks, your average member of the public would naturally throw it out, but they might be interested in printing out a replacement if its possible. However, lets imagine the printer isn't 3D but is just a normal one like you already own. 

Ever used your normal printer to create a TShirt Iron On transfer, to create a unique T Shirt design?
Ever used your printer to create your own magazine from a digital version?
Does your current printer have all the right ink in it? How expensive was it?
Do you use your printer to create unique posters?
When did your mother last use a printer?

These questions all have a angle that good forecasting needs to address. Will the new product address the problems that new technology also brings along with it?

Once the novelty has worn away, will we still use it?

My forecast for 3D printers is that it will make a huge difference, but that it will create a new industry rather than find its way into the home.  3D printers will take the place of copy shops in malls as a half way house between an online business and a consultancy.  People will bring in broken kit, and expect it fixed.  They won't want to create the plans themselves. 

Where I see the forecasts in the articles have gone wrong is that it over estimates the benefits it will bring the mainstream. The mainstream public are only interested in things that make THEIR life easier.  If its easier to sell junk, or easier to talk to people, or easier to feel good about themselves - then its going to work!

How does a 3D printer do any of those things?

Let me know what you think

Maths? I hate maths!

When people try to forecast a future event, they usually use a pattern that they are aware of which lead to a similar situation.

For instance, if the economy slows down and ends up in recession, many people will assume the problem was caused by the first indicators of the recession.  This might be financial organizations becoming insolvent. Using this pattern, if you prevent financial organizations becoming insolvent, this would prevent the economy ending up in recession.  However, this is far too simplistic, and is just going to lead to a different problem. Forecasting the future involves more variables than this. 

The most important image for making any form of forecasting is the sin wave.

Does it look complicated?
It shouldn't, its just a never ending signal that goes up and down at a very regular interval.

Mathematically, this is the most basic forecast you can do. The amplitude will reach a certain level at every multiple of the wavelength.  Its the core idea behind forecasting the future.

And that is the first problem.  In the real world, it isn't as easy as just saying, its just like this in the past, so it will happen again.  That is what introduces the new problems which makes the future different.

Maybe we should call it harmonics

The Basics

Those that ignore history are destined to repeat it.

Truer words have never been said!

Predicting the future is based on this idea.  However, until soundbites, the process can't be stripped down into a few simple algorithms.  Its more complex than that!

However, there are a number of aids that can be used to make it easier, and that is what I am hoping to teach.

For instance, ever heard of Boom and Bust?  Its not a policy error, its a natural cycle and it can be used to forecast the future.

What I hope to do is to run though all the cycles we know of and explain how they can merge.

Looking forward to some feedback

Introductions

This is a blog that intends to go places.

Over the next few years, I will be posting new content which will help anyone predict the future.

Before you start thinking that this is some kind of magic, don't worry, it isn't!

Using history, maths and a little gut feeling, just about anyone can predict the future - and I will show you how!

For now, I will be setting my blog in order, just remember to come back at least once a week - and start learning an art that everyone wishes they had, but never put any effort into learning how!