Technology always improves. Where there is an argument about that improvement is improvement for whom.
Every technology serves the people who use it, so where a range of products were invented by one group of people, their children might use that technology in a totally different way.
There are plenty of examples, but their relevance is dependent on your understanding of technology! Mention video recorders, and how they were designed as time shifters, but ended up as media players, and anyone under 20 has no real understanding of what you are on about!
Talk about mp3 players, and how they became iPods because of ITunes, and they might grasp what you mean. However, anyone over 50 will be lost!
Technology moves from the lab to the home over around 20 to 30 years. While it might be fun to look at a modern technology and pin point these moves, its better to look at a technology that has already moved from bleading edge to commodity and see how it then gets layers of advancements.
Want to predict the future? Look at the way that electricity distribution from the mid 19th century mirrors the way the internet has been distributed since the early 90s. Then start making a projection - will we have a wireless only future, or will it be like the relationship between electric mains and batteries?
Tuesday 13 November 2012
Tuesday 16 October 2012
Practical Example - what will 2020 look like?
If you want to predict the future, you need to use some targetting mechanisms to turn your finger in the air, into a forecast.
A good way to do this is to pick a year, and try and describe it in detail. Lets choose 2020.
This is 8 years from now, and far enough away to be able to see changes. Firstly, things will be very similar to now. Its not going to be all flying cars! ;)
Now look back 8 years and see what life was like. 8 years ago was 2004. We had a growing economy, and people were buying products that entertained them. They were also going on holiday and massaging their egos with nice branded goods. Most of the work available was in the public sector and the service industries. Colleges were being criticized for having too many media courses, and everyone wanted to be a star! China was spotted as being a growing power, and We were having a war in the middle east.
Notice how its mostly about the economy? In 2020, the most dominant feature will be how the economy will be set up. If its growing, which I think it will be, then people will be feeling good about life, and positive about the future.
The question is, what will be causing the growth? Technology is the best way to create growth. Its about introducing a change that is big enough to warrant spending by the public. When the people want something, rather than the government wanting people to want something, the economy changes shape.
It happened with computers in the 80s / 90s when people bought the home computers for their kids
It happened in the 90s / 00s with mobile phones where people found they no longer had to stay in the house.
So what is the next growth market? Its not tablets, or smart phones etc as they are just replacements for what people already have. A real technology growth is where something new turns up.
All the indicators show that the next growth market is robots. Personal robots which play the role of medical or personal carer will be very popular as soon as the prices hit an affordable figure.
They will be built by car manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda.
The question is will this effect be big enough, fast enough to make 2020 the best time to enter this market?
That would be your choice!
A good way to do this is to pick a year, and try and describe it in detail. Lets choose 2020.
This is 8 years from now, and far enough away to be able to see changes. Firstly, things will be very similar to now. Its not going to be all flying cars! ;)
Now look back 8 years and see what life was like. 8 years ago was 2004. We had a growing economy, and people were buying products that entertained them. They were also going on holiday and massaging their egos with nice branded goods. Most of the work available was in the public sector and the service industries. Colleges were being criticized for having too many media courses, and everyone wanted to be a star! China was spotted as being a growing power, and We were having a war in the middle east.
Notice how its mostly about the economy? In 2020, the most dominant feature will be how the economy will be set up. If its growing, which I think it will be, then people will be feeling good about life, and positive about the future.
The question is, what will be causing the growth? Technology is the best way to create growth. Its about introducing a change that is big enough to warrant spending by the public. When the people want something, rather than the government wanting people to want something, the economy changes shape.
It happened with computers in the 80s / 90s when people bought the home computers for their kids
It happened in the 90s / 00s with mobile phones where people found they no longer had to stay in the house.
So what is the next growth market? Its not tablets, or smart phones etc as they are just replacements for what people already have. A real technology growth is where something new turns up.
All the indicators show that the next growth market is robots. Personal robots which play the role of medical or personal carer will be very popular as soon as the prices hit an affordable figure.
They will be built by car manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda.
The question is will this effect be big enough, fast enough to make 2020 the best time to enter this market?
That would be your choice!
Monday 24 September 2012
3D Printers - can you predict what will happen?
Here is a great practice for learning the thinking process for forecasting the future.
The news is currently full of stories about 3D Printers, specifically about MakerBot. They just opened a shop in New York, and want to be huge. The story is predicting that, just like PC's changed the world, 3D Printers will do the same.
Do you agree?
I don't, for the following reasons.
Firstly, technology becomes popular because of how it makes something easier. That it all it does. The mainstream public don't buy technology just because its new.
Lets look at the forecast in more detail. When something breaks, your average member of the public would naturally throw it out, but they might be interested in printing out a replacement if its possible. However, lets imagine the printer isn't 3D but is just a normal one like you already own.
Ever used your normal printer to create a TShirt Iron On transfer, to create a unique T Shirt design?
Ever used your printer to create your own magazine from a digital version?
Does your current printer have all the right ink in it? How expensive was it?
Do you use your printer to create unique posters?
When did your mother last use a printer?
These questions all have a angle that good forecasting needs to address. Will the new product address the problems that new technology also brings along with it?
Once the novelty has worn away, will we still use it?
My forecast for 3D printers is that it will make a huge difference, but that it will create a new industry rather than find its way into the home. 3D printers will take the place of copy shops in malls as a half way house between an online business and a consultancy. People will bring in broken kit, and expect it fixed. They won't want to create the plans themselves.
Where I see the forecasts in the articles have gone wrong is that it over estimates the benefits it will bring the mainstream. The mainstream public are only interested in things that make THEIR life easier. If its easier to sell junk, or easier to talk to people, or easier to feel good about themselves - then its going to work!
How does a 3D printer do any of those things?
Let me know what you think
The news is currently full of stories about 3D Printers, specifically about MakerBot. They just opened a shop in New York, and want to be huge. The story is predicting that, just like PC's changed the world, 3D Printers will do the same.
Do you agree?
I don't, for the following reasons.
Firstly, technology becomes popular because of how it makes something easier. That it all it does. The mainstream public don't buy technology just because its new.
Lets look at the forecast in more detail. When something breaks, your average member of the public would naturally throw it out, but they might be interested in printing out a replacement if its possible. However, lets imagine the printer isn't 3D but is just a normal one like you already own.
Ever used your normal printer to create a TShirt Iron On transfer, to create a unique T Shirt design?
Ever used your printer to create your own magazine from a digital version?
Does your current printer have all the right ink in it? How expensive was it?
Do you use your printer to create unique posters?
When did your mother last use a printer?
These questions all have a angle that good forecasting needs to address. Will the new product address the problems that new technology also brings along with it?
Once the novelty has worn away, will we still use it?
My forecast for 3D printers is that it will make a huge difference, but that it will create a new industry rather than find its way into the home. 3D printers will take the place of copy shops in malls as a half way house between an online business and a consultancy. People will bring in broken kit, and expect it fixed. They won't want to create the plans themselves.
Where I see the forecasts in the articles have gone wrong is that it over estimates the benefits it will bring the mainstream. The mainstream public are only interested in things that make THEIR life easier. If its easier to sell junk, or easier to talk to people, or easier to feel good about themselves - then its going to work!
How does a 3D printer do any of those things?
Let me know what you think
Friday 21 September 2012
Maths? I hate maths!
When people try to forecast a future event, they usually use a pattern that they are aware of which lead to a similar situation.
For instance, if the economy slows down and ends up in recession, many people will assume the problem was caused by the first indicators of the recession. This might be financial organizations becoming insolvent. Using this pattern, if you prevent financial organizations becoming insolvent, this would prevent the economy ending up in recession. However, this is far too simplistic, and is just going to lead to a different problem. Forecasting the future involves more variables than this.
The most important image for making any form of forecasting is the sin wave.
Does it look complicated?
It shouldn't, its just a never ending signal that goes up and down at a very regular interval.
Mathematically, this is the most basic forecast you can do. The amplitude will reach a certain level at every multiple of the wavelength. Its the core idea behind forecasting the future.
And that is the first problem. In the real world, it isn't as easy as just saying, its just like this in the past, so it will happen again. That is what introduces the new problems which makes the future different.
Maybe we should call it harmonics
For instance, if the economy slows down and ends up in recession, many people will assume the problem was caused by the first indicators of the recession. This might be financial organizations becoming insolvent. Using this pattern, if you prevent financial organizations becoming insolvent, this would prevent the economy ending up in recession. However, this is far too simplistic, and is just going to lead to a different problem. Forecasting the future involves more variables than this.
The most important image for making any form of forecasting is the sin wave.
Does it look complicated?
It shouldn't, its just a never ending signal that goes up and down at a very regular interval.
Mathematically, this is the most basic forecast you can do. The amplitude will reach a certain level at every multiple of the wavelength. Its the core idea behind forecasting the future.
And that is the first problem. In the real world, it isn't as easy as just saying, its just like this in the past, so it will happen again. That is what introduces the new problems which makes the future different.
Maybe we should call it harmonics
Thursday 20 September 2012
The Basics
Those that ignore history are destined to repeat it.
Truer words have never been said!
Predicting the future is based on this idea. However, until soundbites, the process can't be stripped down into a few simple algorithms. Its more complex than that!
However, there are a number of aids that can be used to make it easier, and that is what I am hoping to teach.
For instance, ever heard of Boom and Bust? Its not a policy error, its a natural cycle and it can be used to forecast the future.
What I hope to do is to run though all the cycles we know of and explain how they can merge.
Looking forward to some feedback
Truer words have never been said!
Predicting the future is based on this idea. However, until soundbites, the process can't be stripped down into a few simple algorithms. Its more complex than that!
However, there are a number of aids that can be used to make it easier, and that is what I am hoping to teach.
For instance, ever heard of Boom and Bust? Its not a policy error, its a natural cycle and it can be used to forecast the future.
What I hope to do is to run though all the cycles we know of and explain how they can merge.
Looking forward to some feedback
Introductions
This is a blog that intends to go places.
Over the next few years, I will be posting new content which will help anyone predict the future.
Before you start thinking that this is some kind of magic, don't worry, it isn't!
Using history, maths and a little gut feeling, just about anyone can predict the future - and I will show you how!
For now, I will be setting my blog in order, just remember to come back at least once a week - and start learning an art that everyone wishes they had, but never put any effort into learning how!
Over the next few years, I will be posting new content which will help anyone predict the future.
Before you start thinking that this is some kind of magic, don't worry, it isn't!
Using history, maths and a little gut feeling, just about anyone can predict the future - and I will show you how!
For now, I will be setting my blog in order, just remember to come back at least once a week - and start learning an art that everyone wishes they had, but never put any effort into learning how!
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